Jason-Evans-0I4A0060 - Version 2
Associate Professor Jason Evans
B. Sci, B. Math (Hons) (Newcastle), Ph.D. (ANU)
Field of Research: 
Regional climate modelling, land-atmosphere interactions
Contact details:
+61 2 9385 7066

Room 453
Mathews Building (F23)
UNSW, Kensington 2052

Research & Current Projects


 My research involves general issues of water cycle processes over land, and how we can change them, largely through changes in land use and changes in climate. I focus at the regional (or watershed) scale and study processes including river flow, evaporation/transpiration, water vapour transport and precipitation.


CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) is an international project providing global coordination of Regional Climate Downscaling for improved regional climate change adaptation and impact assessment. I am lead of the CORDEX-AustralAsia domain. This project is focused on downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Model simulations and, along with NARCliM, will provide the most comprehensive regional scale climate projections to date.

NSW / ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project

NARCliM is producing an ensemble of regional climate projections over south-east Australia in collaboration with the NSW government Office of Environment and Heritage. These simulations will be used to investigate regional climate processes and their future changes, as well as facilitating climate change impacts and adaptation research.

East Coast Low project

This project is part of the Eastern Seaboard Climate Change Initiative (ESCCI) sponsored by the NSW government Office of Environment and Heritage. The focus of this project is to use relatively high resolution (10km) regional climate model simulations to investigate how the frequency and intensity of East Coast Lows may change in the future due to global warming. These storm systems often develop quickly and can remain relatively small spatially, making them difficult for global models to capture. The project will also attempt to quantify the influence of local topography and sea surface temperatures on the East Coast Lows.

Sub-daily precipitation extremes

This project is an international collaboration initiated by the GEWEX Hydroclimate Panel. Several studies have used local data to show that sub-daily precipitation extremes can be intensifying even if at daily and longer time-scales this is not the case. This project is aiming to bring together a large dataset of high quality sub-daily precipitation from around the globe. Trends in this sub-daily precipitation can then be investigated globally including questions around mechanistic causes and model capabilities.

Murray-Darling Basin Project
This project focuses on land-atmosphere interactions in the Murray-Darling Basin. I am attempting to answer questions concerning the effects of land-atmosphere feedbacks on precipitation in the watershed. What is the extent of precipitation recylcing in the MDB? Where is the land-atmosphere interaction strongest?

The major tool for this study is a regional climate model. In this case I am using a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.

This work contributes to the Australian Energy and Water Exchanges initiative (OzEWEX).


See also:





Dr Daniel Argüeso (Post-Doctoral Research Fellow)
Daniel investigates regional climate modeling and the study of climate change at regional scales. He uses regional models to generate high-resolution projections of climate change and explore its implications on precipitation and temperature, particularly in terms of extreme events.

Email: d.argueso@unsw.edu.au

Dr Alejandro di Luca (Post-Doctoral Research Fellow)
Alejandro investigates regional climate modeling and the study of climate change at regional scales. He uses regional models to investigate the development of storm systems including the influence of local topography and sea surface temperatures.

Email: a.diluca@unsw.edu.au

Dr Claire Carouge (Research Associate)
Claire's research focuses on coupling a land surface model with a regional atmospheric circulation model to better understand actual and future Australian climate at regional scales.

Email: c.carouge@unsw.edu.au

Dr Mark Decker (Post-Doctoral Research Fellow)
Mark's research focuses on the land surface and its interaction with the atmosphere. Specifically his interests include using land models in conjunction with in-situ and remotely sensed measurements to study the impact of land processes on weather and climate, the development of land models focusing on improving the representation of the various physical processes, and the impact on climate due to both natural and anthropogenic changes in the land surface. Currently he is identifying regions in Australia where groundwater has a significant impact on climate through the use of models and remotely sensed data.

Email: m.decker@unsw.edu.au

Dr James Gilmore (Post-Doctoral Research Fellow)
James is interested in atmospheric physics--in particular, precipitation physics and how this relates to changes in climate. He uses cloud-resolving models to understand precipitation processes and extremes, with a focus on precipitation over Australia. His background is in theoretical physics, and he employs methods from this field in his research.

Email: james.gilmore@unsw.edu.au

Dr Hoori Ajami (Post-Doctoral Research Fellow)
Hoori's main area of expertise is in Catchment Hydrology and Spatial Analysis, with experience in the areas of groundwater recharge, surface water-groundwater interactions, riparian evapotranspiration, and GIS custom application development for hydrological models. Current research interests also include application of integrated hydrological models to characterize surface water/groundwater/atmospheric interactions, assessing climate change impacts on groundwater recharge in mountainous catchments of semi-arid basins, and application of isotope and remote sensing data in characterizing hydrologic cycle.

Email: h.ajami@unsw.edu.au

Dr Yi Liu (Post-Doctoral Research Fellow)
Liu's research interest is in using satellite-based observations to investigate the hydrological cycle e.g., precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, vegetation water content and groundwater storage, for enhanced understanding of interactions between different hydrological components.

Email: yi.liu@unsw.edu.au


Research Students


Hamish Clarke
Hamish is interested in the ability of regional climate models to capture bushfire weather.

Email: h.clarke@student.unsw.edu.au

Ali Ershadi Esmaeilabadi
Ali is interested in remote sensing hydrology, particularly in estimating evapotranspiration from space.

Email: a.ershadi@student.unsw.edu.au

Peter Graham
Peter has over ten years experience as a contaminated land consultant, prior to this Peters studies included Soil Science, Geology, Economic Geology and Hydrogeology. Peter is interested in geomorphology and the effects of site scale variations on groundwater quality.

Email: p.graham@unsw.edu.au

Ditiro Moalafhi
Ditiro is creating a regional climate reanalysis for Southern Africa for use in hydrology studies.

Email: d.moalafhi@studentunsw.edu.au

Eytan Rocheta
Eytan is investigating the benefit of bias-correcting lateral boundary conditions for regional climate simulations.

Email: e.rocheta@student.unsw.edu.au

Cecilia Azcurra
Cecilia's PhD research aims to use the stable isotopes of water to quantify the interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation, soil, surface water and groundwater at Wellington Research Station and the nearby Wellington Caves. Cecilia's research is part of Program 1D of the National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training.

Email: c.azcurra@student.unsw.edu.au

Jingwan Li
Jingwan is exploring the climate change impact on Intensity-Frequency-Duration curves for design rainfall.

Email: jingwan.li@student.unsw.edu.au



Yi Liu

Using Satellite Based Microwave Observations to Characterise Land Surface Hydrology



CLIM2001/PHYS 2801 Atomospheric Science(Lecturer)



49. Kala, J., M. Decker, J.-F. Exbrayat, A.J. Pitman, C. Carouge, J.P. Evans, G. Abramowitz and D. Mocko (2013) Influence of leaf area index prescriptions on simulations of heat, moisture, and carbon fluxes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, accepted 16 September 2013.

48. Hirsch, A.L., J. Kala, A.J. Pitman, C. Carouge, J.P. Evans, V. Haverd and D. Mocko (2013) Impact of Land Surface Initialisation Approach on Sub-seasonal Forecast Skill: A Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Hydrometeorology, accepted 10 September 2013.

47. Ji, F., M. Ekstrom, J.P. Evans and J. Teng (2013) Evaluating rainfall patterns using physics scheme ensembles from a regional atmospheric model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0904-2, accepted 8 April 2013.

46. Argueso, D., J.P. Evans, L. Fita and K.J. Bormann (2013) Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1789-6, accepted 22 April 2013.

45. Mehrotra, R., J.P. Evans, A. Sharma and B. Sivakumar (2013) Evaluation of Downscaled Daily Rainfall Hindcasts over Sydney, Australia Using Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling Approaches. Hydrology Research, doi: 10.2166/nh.2013.094, accepted 21 April 2013.

44. Meng, X.H., J.P. Evans and M.F. McCabe (2013) The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1790-0, accepted 21 April 2013.

43. Ershadi, A., M.F. McCabe, J.P. Evans, G. Mariethoz and D. Kavetski (2013) A Bayesian analysis of sensible heat flux estimation: Quantifying uncertainty in meteorological forcing to improve model prediction. Water Resources Research, 49, 2343–2358, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20231.

42. Evans, J.P. and M.F. McCabe (2013) Model resolution impact on regional climate and climate change using WRF over south-east Australia. Climate Research, 56, 131-145, doi: 10.3354/cr01151.

41. Clarke, H., J.P. Evans and A. J. Pitman (2013) Fire weather simulation skill by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over southeast Australia from 1985 to 2009. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22(6), 739-756, doi: 10.1071/WF12048.

40. Simpson, C.C., J.J. Sharples, J.P. Evans and M.F. McCabe (2013) Large eddy simulation of atypical wildland fire spread on leeward slopes. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 22(5), 599-614, doi: 10.1071/WF12072.

39. Decker, M., A.J. Pitman and J.P. Evans (2013) Groundwater constraints on simulated transpiration variability over South Eastern Australian forests. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14, 543-559, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-12-058.1.

38. Liu, Y.Y., J.P. Evans, M.F. McCabe, R.A.M. de Jeu, A.I.J.M. van Dijk, A.J. Dolman and I. Saizen (2013) Changing Climate and Overgrazing are Decimating Mongolian Steppes. PLOS ONE, 8(2), e57599, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0057599.

37. Bormann, K., J.P. Evans and M.F. McCabe (2013) Spatial and temporal variability in seasonal snow density. Journal of Hydrology, 484, 63-73, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.032.

36. Jha, S.K., G. Mariethoz, J.P. Evans and M.F. McCabe (2013) Demonstration of a geostatistical approach to physically-consistent downscaling of climate modeling simulations. Water Resources Research, 49(1), 245-259, doi:10.1029/2012WR012602.

35. Liu, Y.Y., A.I.J.M. van Dijk, M.F. McCabe, J.P. Evans and R.A.M. de Jeu (2013) Global vegetation biomass change (1988–2008) and attribution to environmental and human drivers. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22(6), 692-705, doi:10.1111/geb.12024.

34. Ershadi, A., M.F. McCabe, J.P. Evans and J.P. Walker (2013) Effects of spatial aggregation on the multi-scale estimation of evapotranspiration. Remote Sensing of Environment, 131, 51-62, doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2012.12.007.

33. Westra, S., J.P. Evans, R. Mehrotra, and A. Sharma (2013) A conditional disaggregation algorithm for generating fine time-scale rainfall data in a warmer climate. Journal of Hydrology, 479, 86-99, doi:10.1016/j.hydrol.2012.11.033.

32. Wang, L., P. D'Odorico, J.P. Evans, D. Eldridge, M.F. McCabe, K.K. Caylor and E.G. King (2012) Dryland ecohydrology and climate change: critical issues and technical advances. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2585-2603, doi:10.5194/hess-16-2585-2012. 

31. Bryan, S.E., A.G. Cook, J.P. Evans, K. Hebden, L. Hurrey, P. Colls, J.S. Jell, D. Weatherley, and J. Firn (2012) Rapid, Long-Distance Dispersal by Pumice Rafting, PLoS ONE, 7(7), e40583, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0040583.

30.Evans, J.P. and I. Boyer-Souchet (2012), Local sea surface temperatures add to extreme precipitation in northeast Australia during La Niña, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39(10), L10803, doi:10.1029/2012GL052014.

29. Evans, J.P. and S. Westra (2012) Investigating the Mechanisms of Diurnal Rainfall Variability Using a Regional Climate Model, Journal of Climate, 25, 7232–7247, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00616.1.

28. Liu, Y. Y., W. A. Dorigo, R. M. Parinussa, R. A. M. de Jeu, W. Wagner, M. F. McCabe, Evans, J.P., and A. I. J. M. van Dijk (2012), Trend-preserving blending of passive and active microwave soil moisture retrievals, Remote Sensing of Environment, 123, 280–297, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2012.03.014.

27.Bormann, K. J., M. F. McCabe, and J.P. Evans (2012), Satellite based observations for seasonal snow cover detection and characterisation in Australia, Remote Sensing of Environment, 123, 57–71, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2012.03.003.

26.Evans, J.P, M. Ekström, and F. Ji (2012) Evaluating the performance of a WRF physics ensemble over South-East Australia. Climate Dynamics, 39(6), 1241-1258, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1244-5.

25. Liu, Y. Y., R. A. M. De Jeu, M. F. McCabe, J.P. Evans, and A. I. J. M. Van Dijk (2011) Global long-term passive microwave satellite-based retrievals of vegetation optical depth. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048684.

24. Evans, J.P. and A. Alsamawi (2011) The Importance of the Zagros Mountains Barrier Jet to Future Precipitation in the Fertile Crescent. The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 5, 87-95. 

23. Liu, Y. Y., Parinussa, R. M., Dorigo, W. A., De Jeu, R. A. M., Wagner, W., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., McCabe, M. F., and Evans, J.P. (2011) Developing an improved soil moisture dataset by blending passive and active microwave satellite-based retrievals, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 425-436, doi:10.5194/hess-15-425-2011.

22.Evans, J.P., A.J. Pitman and F.T. Cruz (2011) Coupled atmospheric and land surface dynamics over South East Australia: A review, analysis and identification of future research priorities. International Journal of Climatology, 31, 1758-1772.

21. Evans, J.P and M. F. McCabe (2010) Regional climate simulation over Australia's Murray-Darling basin: A multitemporal assessment, J. Geophys. Res., 115(D14114), doi:10.1029/2010JD013816.

20. Liu, Y. Y., J.P. Evans, McCabe, M. F., de Jeu, R. A. M., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., and Su, H.(2010) Influence of cracking clays on satellite estimated and model simulated soil moisture, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 979-990, doi:10.5194/hess-14-979-2010.

19.Cruz, F.T., A.J. Pitman, J.L. McGregor and J.P. Evans (2010) Contrasting regional responses to increasing leaf-level atmospheric carbon dioxide over Australia. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11(2), 296-314.

18. Evans, J.P. (2010) Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99 (3-4), 389-402.

17.Evans, J.P. (2009) 21st century climate change in the Middle East. Climatic Change, 92, 417-432, doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9438-5.

16.Evans, J.P. (2008) Changes in Water Vapor Transport and the Production of Precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent as a Result of Global Warming. J. Hydrometeor., 9, 1390-1401.

15.Evans, J.P. And B.F. Zaitchik (2008) Modeling the large scale water balance impact of different irrigation systems. Water Resources Research, 44, W08448, doi:10.1029/2007WR006671.

14. Zaitchik, B.F., J.P. Evans and R.B. Smith (2007) Regional impact of an elevated heat source: The Zagros plateau of Iran. Journal of Climate, 20: 4133-4146.

13. Zaitchik, B.F., J.P. Evans, R.A. Geerken and R.B. Smith (2007) Climate and vegetation in the Middle East: inter-annual variability and drought feedbacks. Journal of Climate, 20: 3924-3941.

12. Smith, R. and J.P. Evans (2007) Orographic precipitation and water vapor fractionation over the southern Andes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8: 3-19.

11.Evans, J.P. and R. Geerken (2006) Classifying rangeland vegetation type and coverage using a Fourier component based similarity measure. Remote Sensing of Environment, 105: 1-8.

10.Evans, J.P. and R. Smith (2006) Water vapor transport and the production of precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7(6): 1295-1307.

9. Geerken, R., B. Zaitchik, and J.P. Evans (2005) Classifying rangeland vegetation type and coverage from NDVI time-series using Fourier Filtered Cycle Similarity. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 26(24): 5535-5554.

8. Evans, J.P., R.J. Oglesby, W.M. Lapenta (2005) Time series analysis of regional climate model performance. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D04104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005046.

7. Zaitchik, B. F., J.P. Evans, and R. B. Smith (2005) MODIS-derived boundary conditions for a mesoscale climate model: application to irrigated agriculture in the Euphrates Basin. Monthly Weather Review, 133: 1727-1743.

6. Evans, J.P., Smith, R.B. and Oglesby, R.J. (2004) Middle East climate simulation and dominant precipitation processes. International Journal of Climatology, 24: 1671-1694.

5. Bryan SE, Cook A, Evans J, Colls, P, Lawrence M, Wells M, Jell JS, Greig A, Leslie R (2004) Pumice rafting and faunal dispersion during 2001-2002 in the southwest Pacific: record of a dacitic submarine explosive eruption from Tonga. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 227(1-2): 135-154.

4. Evans, J.P and Geerken, R. (2004) Discrimination between climate and human induced dryland degradation. Journal of Arid Environments, 57(4): 535-554.

3. Evans, J.P. (2003) Improving the characteristics of streamflow modeled by regional climate models. Journal of Hydrology, 284: 211-227.

2. Evans, J.P. and Schreider, S. (2002) Hydrological impacts of climate change on inflows to Perth, Australia. Climatic Change, 55: 361-393.

1. Evans, J.P.and Jakeman, A.J. (1998) Development of a simple, catchment-scale, rainfall-evapotranspiration-runoff model. Environmental Modelling and Software, 13: 385-394.



  1. Evans, J.P., J. L. McGregor, and K. McGuffie (2012) Future Regional Climates. The future of the World’s climate, Eds. A. Henderson-Sellers and K. McGuffie, 223–252, Elsevier.
  2. Jakeman, A.J., Green, T.R., Zhang, L., Beavis, S.G., Evans, J.P., Dietrich, C.R. and Barnes, B. (1998) Modelling catchment erosion, sediment and nutrient transport in large basins. In: Soil Erosion at Multiple Scales, F.W.T. Penning de Vries et al. (eds.), CABI Publishing, Wallingford, UK, pp. 343-355.