Dr Alex Sen Gupta
Senior Lecturer | Postgraduate Coordinator (Thesis Examination)
Field of Research: 
Climate Science, Oceanography
Contact details:
+61 2 9385 8951

Room 454 Level 4, Matthews Building
UNSW, Kensington 2052

See also 


Research & Current Projects


My work revolves around the role of the ocean in the climate system, how the ocean influences regional climate and what global climate models tell us about the future of the ocean. Areas of interest include:

In the Media

The Conversation FactCheck: Are 95% of models linking human CO₂ emissions and global warming in error? 18 May 2015

The Conversation Sydney’s waters could be tropical in decades, here’s the bad news… 16 September 2014

Sydney Morning Herald Eastern Australian waters warming fastest 31 March 2014

The Australian Ozone action linked to hiatus 11 November 2013

BBC News Global warming slowdown linked to cooler Pacific waters 28 August 2013

NBC News Pacific cooling explains break in global warming, study shows 28 August 2013

Australia Network News New model could give 12 months warning on El Niño 8 July 2013

ABC Science New forecast may predict El Nino earlier 2 July 2013



Dr Joe Scutt Phllips - Research Associate


Research Students


Yue Li (PhD candidate)

Dipayan Choudhury (PhD candidate)

Sarah Perry (PhD Candidate)

Gabrielle Pontes (MSc candidate)


Xeurong Qin (PhD 2016)

Nicola Maher (PhD 2016)

Yue Li (MSc 2013)



MSCI3001 Physical Oceanography (Course Convenor)

MSCI5004 Oceanographic Processes (Course Convenor)

MSCI2001 Introductory Marine Science (Guest Lecturer)

SCIF1004 Science and the Cinema (Guest Lecturer)




  1. Lough JM, A Sen Gupta, SB Power MR Grose & S McGree (in press, accepted 20/1/2015) Observed and projected changes in surface climate of tropical Pacific islands. Chapter 2 in Vulnerability of Pacific Island Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Change (M Bell ed.), Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia.
  2. Ganachaud, A. Sen Gupta, J. Orr, S. Wijffels, K. Ridgway, M. Hemer, C. Maes, C. Steinberg, A. Tribollet, 
B. Qiu, J. Kruger (2011). Observed and Expected Changes to the Pacific Ocean. In: Vulnerability of Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Pacific to Climate Change (J.D. Bell, ed.). Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia.
  3. J. Bell, Adams, T., Johnson, J., Alistair Hobday, A., Sen Gupta, A (2011). The Pacific Community, fisheries, aquaculture and climate change: an introduction. In: Vulnerability of Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Pacific to Climate Change (J.D. Bell, ed.). Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia.
  4. Sen Gupta, A., and B. McNeil (2012), Variability and change in the ocean, in The Future of the World’s Climate, edited by A. Henderson-Sellers and K. McGuffie, pp. 141–165, Elsevier, Amsterdam
  5. Murphy, BF., Sen Gupta, A. and McGee, S. The Climate of the Pacific and East Timor. In: Climate Change in the Pacific, Volume 1, CSIRO (2011) 5.
  6. Collins, D., Power, SB. and Sen Gupta, A. Observed Climate Variability and Trends. In: Climate Change in the Pacific, Volume 1, CSIRO (2011).
  7. Brown J., Colman, R., Irving, D., Katzfey, J. Perkins, S. and Sen Gupta, A. Climate Models and their reliability. In: Climate Change in the Pacific, Volume 1, CSIRO (2011).
  8. Hennessy, K., Perkins, S., Murphy, BF, Sen Gupta, A., Abbs, D., Church, J., Tilbrook, B., Katzfey, J. and Arthur, C. Climate Projections for the PCCSP Region. In: Climate Change in the Pacific, Volume 1, CSIRO (2011).
  9. Rischbieth, J., Collins, D, Murphy, BF, McGee, S, Brown, J, Church, J, Lenton, A, Sen Gupta, A, Clarke, A, and all Partner Country National Meteorological Service representatives. Climate Change in the Pacific, Country Reports, Volume 2, CSIRO (2011)



  1. Qin, X., Menviel, L., Sen Gupta, A, van Sebille, E. (2016). Iron sources and pathways into the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent. Geophysical Research Letters (in press)
  2. Li, Y., N. C. Jourdain, A. S. Taschetto, A. S. Gupta, D. Argüeso, S. Masson, and W. Cai (2016), Resolution dependence of the simulated precipitation and diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent, Clim Dyn, 1–20, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3317-y.
  3. Pontes, G. M., A. S. Gupta, and A. S. Taschetto (2016), Projected changes to South Atlantic boundary currents and confluence region in the CMIP5 models: the role of wind and deep ocean changes, Environ. Res. Lett., 11(9), 094013, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094013.
  4. Individual-based methods for simulation of movement by WCPO skipjack and other pelagic species (2016) Scutt Phillips J., A. Sen Gupta, E. van Sebille, I. Senina, P. Lehodey and S. Nicol. 12th Regular Session of the Scientific Committee, Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission
  5. Taschetto, A.S., A. Sen Gupta, C.C. Ummenhofer and M.H.England. 2016. Can Australian multi-year droughts and wet spells be generated in the absence of oceanic variability? Journal of Climate, accepted on 02/05/2016.
  6. Dipayan Choudhury, Ashish Sharma, Alexander Sen Gupta, Rajeshwar Mehrotra and Bellie Sivakumar. Sampling biases in CMIP5 decadal forecasts. Journal of Geophysical Research (accepted: 26/03/2016)
  7. Sen Gupta, A., S. McGregor, E. van Sebille, A. Ganachaud, J. Brown, and A. Santoso (2016), Future changes to the Indonesian Throughflow and Pacific circulation: The differing role of wind and deep circulation changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2016GL067757, doi:10.1002/2016GL067757
  8. Jourdain, N. C., M. Lengaigne, J. Vialard, T. Izumo, and A. Sen Gupta (2016), Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 637–658, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0481.1.
  9. Hobday, A. J., L. V. Alexander, S. E. Perkins, D. A. Smale, S. C. Straub, E. C. J. Oliver, J. Benthuysen, M. T. Burrows, M. G. Donat, M. Feng, N. J. Holbrook, P. J. Moore, H. A. Scannell, A. Sen Gupta, and T. Wernberg (2016), A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves, Progress in Oceanography, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014.
  10. Ummenhofer, C. C., A. Sen Gupta, M. H. England, A. S. Taschetto, P. R. Briggs, and M. R. Raupach (2015), How did ocean warming affect Australian rainfall extremes during the 2010/2011 La Niña event?: OCEAN WARMING AND AUSTRALIAN EXTREMES, Geophysical Research Letters, 42(22), 9942–9951, doi:10.1002/2015GL065948.
  11. Evans, K., J. W. Young, S. Nicol, D. Kolody, V. Allain, J. Bell, J. N. Brown, A. Ganachaud, A. J. Hobday, B. Hunt, J. Innes, A. Sen Gupta, E. van Sebille, R. Kloser, T. Patterson, and A. Singh (2015), Optimising fisheries management in relation to tuna catches in the western central Pacific Ocean: A review of research priorities and opportunities, Marine Policy, 59, 94–104, doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2015.05.003.
  12. Hu, D., L. Wu, W. Cai, A. Sen Gupta, A. Ganachaud, B. Qiu, A. L. Gordon, X. Lin, Z. Chen, S. Hu, G. Wang, Q. Wang, J. Sprintall, T. Qu, Y. Kashino, F. Wang, and W. S. Kessler (2015), Pacific western boundary currents and their roles in climate, Nature, 522(7556), 299–308, doi:10.1038/nature14504.
  13. Qin, X., A. Sen Gupta, and E. van Sebille (2015), Variability in the origins and pathways of Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent water, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120(4), 3113–3128, doi:10.1002/2014JC010549.
  14. Maher, N., S. McGregor, M. H. England, and A. Sen Gupta (2015), Effects of volcanism on tropical variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(14), 2015GL064751, doi:10.1002/2015GL064751.
  15. Brown, J. N., C. Langlais, and A. Sen Gupta (2015), Projected sea surface temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific relative to the Warm Pool edge, Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 113, 47–58, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.10.022.
  16. Sen Gupta, A., J. N. Brown, N. C. Jourdain, E. van Sebille, A. Ganachaud, and A. Vergés (2015), Episodic and non-uniform shifts of thermal habitats in a warming ocean, Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 113, 59–72, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.12.002.
  17. Evans, K., J. N. Brown, A. Sen Gupta, S. J. Nicol, S. Hoyle, R. Matear, and H. Arrizabalaga (2015), When 1+1 can be >2: Uncertainties compound when simulating climate, fisheries and marine ecosystems, Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 113, 312–322, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.04.006.
  18. Choudhury, D., A. Sharma, B. Sivakumar, A. S. Gupta, and R. Mehrotra (2015), On the predictability of SSTA indices from CMIP5 decadal experiments, Environmental Research Letters, 10(7), 074013. )
  19. Maher, N., A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2014), Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41(16), 5978–5986, doi:10.1002/2014GL060527.
  20. Vergés, A., P. D. Steinberg, M. E. Hay, A. G. B. Poore, A. H. Campbell, E. Ballesteros, K. L. Heck, D. J. Booth, M. A. Coleman, D. A. Feary, W. Figueira, T. Langlois, E. M. Marzinelli, T. Mizerek, P. J. Mumby, Y. Nakamura, M. Roughan, E. van Sebille, A. Sen Gupta, D. A. Smale, F. Tomas, T. Wernberg, and S. K. Wilson (2014), The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 281(1789), 20140846, doi:10.1098/rspb.2014.0846.
  21. Van Sebille, E., J. Sprintall, F. U. Schwarzkopf, A. Sen Gupta, A. Santoso, M. H. England, A. Biastoch, and C. W. Böning (2014), Pacific-to-Indian Ocean connectivity: Tasman leakage, Indonesian Throughflow, and the role of ENSO, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 119(2), 1365–1382, doi:10.1002/2013JC009525.
  22. Qin, X., E. van Sebille, and A. Sen Gupta (2014), Quantification of errors induced by temporal resolution on Lagrangian particles in an eddy-resolving model, Ocean Modelling, 76, 20–30, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.02.002.
  23. Taschetto, A. S., A. Sen Gupta, N. C. Jourdain, A. Santoso, C. C. Ummenhofer, and M. H. England (2014), Cold Tongue and Warm Pool ENSO Events in CMIP5: Mean State and Future Projections, J. Climate, 27(8), 2861–2885, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1.
  24. Grose, M. R., J. N. Brown, S. Narsey, J. R. Brown, B. F. Murphy, C. Langlais, A. Sen Gupta, A. F. Moise, and D. B. Irving (2014), Assessment of the CMIP5 global climate model simulations of the western tropical Pacific climate system and comparison to CMIP3, Int. J. Climatol., 34(12), 3382–3399, doi:10.1002/joc.3916.
  25. England, M. H., S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A. Timmermann, W. Cai, A. Sen Gupta, M. J. McPhaden, A. Purich, and A. Santoso (2014), Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nature Clim. Change, 4(3), 222–227, doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.]
  26. Grose, M. R., J. Bhend, S. Narsey, A. Sen Gupta, and J. R. Brown (2014), Can We Constrain CMIP5 Rainfall Projections in the Tropical Pacific Based on Surface Warming Patterns?, J. Climate, 27(24), 9123–9138, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00190.1.
  27. Brown, J. N., J. R. Brown, C. Langlais, R. Colman, J. S. Risbey, B. F. Murphy, A. Moise, A. Sen Gupta, I. Smith, L. Wilson, S. Narsey, M. Grose, and M. C. Wheeler (2013), Exploring qualitative regional climate projections: a case study for , Clim Res, 58(2), 165–182, doi:10.3354/cr01190.
  28. Jourdain, N., A. Sen Gupta, A. Taschetto, C. Ummenhofer, A. Moise, and K. Ashok (2013), The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations, Clim Dyn, 1–30, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1676-1.
  29. Sen Gupta, A., N. C. Jourdain, J. N. Brown, and D. Monselesan (2013), Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models, Journal of Climate, 26(21), 8597–8615, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.1.
  30. Rossi, V., E. Van Sebille, A. Sen Gupta, V. Garçon, and M. H. England (2013b), Multi-decadal projections of surface and interior pathways of the Fukushima Cesium-137 radioactive plume, Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 80, 37–46, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2013.05.015.
  31. Ganachaud, A., A. Sen Gupta, J. N. Brown, K. Evans, C. Maes, L. C. Muir, and F. S. Graham (2012), Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries, Climatic Change, 119(1), 163–179, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0631-1.
  32. Brown, J., A. Sen Gupta, J. Brown, L. Muir, J. Risbey, P. Whetton, X. Zhang, A. Ganachaud, B. Murphy, and S. Wijffels (2013), Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western tropical Pacific, Climatic Change, 119(1), 147–161, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0603-5.
  33. Bell, J. D., A. Ganachaud, P. C. Gehrke, S. P. Griffiths, A. J. Hobday, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, J. E. Johnson, R. Le Borgne, P. Lehodey, J. M. Lough, R. J. Matear, T. D. Pickering, M. S. Pratchett, A. Sen Gupta, I. Senina, and M. Waycott (2013), Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change, Nature Clim. Change, 3(6), 591–599.
  34. Muir, L. C., J. N. Brown, J. S. Risbey, S. E. Wijffels, and A. Sen Gupta (2013), Determining the time of emergence of the climate change signal at regional scales, CAWCR Research Letters
  35. McGregor, S., A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2012), Constraining Wind Stress Products with Sea Surface Height Observations and Implications for Pacific Ocean Sea Level Trend Attribution, Journal of Climate, 25(23), 8164–8176, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00105.1.
  36. Li, Y., N. C. Jourdain, A. S. Taschetto, C. C. Ummenhofer, K. Ashok, and A. Sen Gupta (2012), Evaluation of monsoon seasonality and the tropospheric biennial oscillation transitions in the CMIP models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39(20), L20713, doi:10.1029/2012GL053322.
  37. Froyland, G., C. Horenkamp, V. Rossi, N. Santitissadeekorn, and A. Sen Gupta (2012), Three-dimensional characterization and tracking of an Agulhas Ring, Ocean Modelling, 52–53, 69–75, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.05.001.
  38. Sen Gupta, A., L. C. Muir, J. N. Brown, S. J. Phipps, P. J. Durack, D. Monselesan, and S. E. Wijffels (2012), Climate Drift in the CMIP3 Models, Journal of Climate, 25(13), 4621–4640, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00312.1.
  39. Meissner, K., T. Lippmann, and A. Sen Gupta (2012), Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years, Coral reefs, 1–11.
  40. Sen Gupta, A., A. Ganachaud, S. McGregor, J. N. Brown, and L. Muir (2012), Drivers of the projected changes to the Pacific Ocean equatorial circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39(9), L09605, doi:10.1029/2012GL051447.
  41. Ashok, K., C. Nagaraju, A. Sen Gupta, and D. S. Pai (2012), Decadal changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoons, Clim Dyn, 42(3-4), 1043–1052, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1625-4.
  42. Saenko, O. A., A. Sen Gupta, and P. Spence (2012), On Challenges in Predicting Bottom Water Transport in the Southern Ocean, Journal of Climate, 25(4), 1349–1356, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00040.1.
  43. Irving, D. B., S. E. Perkins, J. R. Brown, A. Sen Gupta, A. F. Moise, B. F. Murphy, L. C. Muir, R. A. Colman, S. B. Power, F. P. Delage, and J. N. Brown (2011), Evaluating global climate models for the Pacific island region, Clim Res, 49(3), 169–187, doi:10.3354/cr01028.
  44. Taschetto, A. S., A. Sen Gupta, H. H. Hendon, C. C. Ummenhofer, and M. H. England (2011), The contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Australian summer rainfall during El Niño events, Journal of Climate, 24(14), 3734–3747.
  45. Ummenhofer, C. C., A. Sen Gupta, P. R. Briggs, M. H. England, P. C. McIntosh, G. A. Meyers, M. J. Pook, M. R. Raupach, and J. S. Risbey (2010), Indian and Pacific Ocean Influences on Southeast Australian Drought and Soil Moisture, J. Climate, 110301125651015, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3475.1.
  46. Ummenhofer, C. C., A. Sen Gupta, Y. Li, A. S. Taschetto, and M. H. England (2011), Multi-decadal modulation of the El Niño–Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability, Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), 034006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034006.
  47. Santoso, A., A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2010), Genesis of Indian Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature Anomalies: A Heat Budget Analysis, J. Climate, 23(20), 5375–5403, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3072.1.
  48. Taschetto, A. S., R. J. Haarsma, A. Sen Gupta, C. C. Ummenhofer, K. J. Hill, and M. H. England (2010b), Australian Monsoon Variability Driven by a Gill–Matsuno-Type Response to Central West Pacific Warming, J. Climate, 23(18), 4717–4736, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3474.1.
  49. Dellnitz, M., G. Froyland, C. Horenkamp, K. Padberg-Gehle, and A. Sen Gupta (2009), Seasonal variability of the subpolar gyres in the Southern Ocean: a numerical investigation based on transfer operators, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 16(6), 655–663.
  50. Ummenhofer, C. C., A. Sen Gupta, A. S. Taschetto, and M. H. England (2009), Modulation of Australian Precipitation by Meridional Gradients in East Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature, J. Climate, 22(21), 5597–5610, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3021.1
  51. McGregor, S., A. Sen Gupta, N. J. Holbrook, and S. B. Power (2009), The Modulation of ENSO Variability in CCSM3 by Extratropical Rossby Waves, J. Climate, 22(22), 5839–5853, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2922.1.
  52. England, M. H., A. Sen Gupta, and A. J. Pitman (2009), Constraining future greenhouse gas emissions by a cumulative target, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(39), 16539–16540, doi:10.1073/pnas.0908197106.
  53. Sen Gupta, A., A. Santoso, A. S. Taschetto, C. C. Ummenhofer, J. Trevena, and M. H. England (2009), Projected Changes to the Southern Hemisphere Ocean and Sea Ice in the IPCC AR4 Climate Models, J. Climate, 22(11), 3047–3078.
  54. Taschetto, A. S., C. C. Ummenhofer, A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2009), Effect of anomalous warming in the central Pacific on the Australian monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36(12), doi:10.1029/2009GL038416.
  55. Ummenhofer, C. C., M. H. England, P. C. McIntosh, G. A. Meyers, M. J. Pook, J. S. Risbey, A. Sen Gupta, and A. S. Taschetto (2009a), What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 5 PP., doi:200910.1029/2008GL036801.
  56. Ummenhofer, C. C., A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2009b), Causes of Late Twentieth-Century Trends in New Zealand Precipitation, J. Climate, 22(1), 3–19, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2323.1.
  57. Ummenhofer, C. C., A. Sen Gupta, M. H. England, and C. J. C. Reason (2009c), Contributions of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures to Enhanced East African Rainfall, J. Climate, 22(4), 993–1013, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2493.1.
  58. Griffies, S. M., A. Biastoch, C. Böning, F. Bryan, G. Danabasoglu, E. P. Chassignet, M. H. England, R. Gerdes, H. Haak, R. W. Hallberg, W. Hazeleger, J. Jungclaus, W. G. Large, G. Madec, A. Pirani, B. L. Samuels, M. Scheinert, A. Sen Gupta, C. A. Severijns, H. L. Simmons, A. M. Treguier, M. Winton, S. Yeager, and J. Yin (2009), Coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments (COREs), Ocean Modelling, 26(1), 1–46.
  59. Ummenhofer, C. C., A. Sen Gupta, M. J. Pook, and M. H. England (2008), Anomalous Rainfall over Southwest Western Australia Forced by Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures, J. Climate, 21(19), 5113–5134, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2227.1.
  60. Sen Gupta, A., and M. H. England (2007), Evaluation of Interior Circulation in a High-Resolution Global Ocean Model. Part II: Southern Hemisphere Intermediate, Mode, and Thermocline Waters, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 37(11), 2612–2636, doi:10.1175/2007JPO3644.1.
  61. Sen Gupta, A., and M. H. England (2007), Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Feedback in the Southern Annular Mode, J. Climate, 20(14), 3677–3692, doi:10.1175/JCLI4200.1.
  62. Sen Gupta, A., and M. H. England (2006), Coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice response to variations in the Southern Annular Mode, Journal of climate, 19(18), 4457–4486.
  63. Dawson, M. N., A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2005), Coupled biophysical global ocean model and molecular genetic analyses identify multiple introductions of cryptogenic species, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102(34), 11968 –11973.
  64. Sen Gupta, A., and M. H. England (2004), Evaluation of Interior Circulation in a High-Resolution Global Ocean Model. Part I: Deep and Bottom Waters, J.Phys.Oceanogr.,34(12), 2592–2614, doi:10.1175/JPO2651.1.